Some bets
1. AI coding for UI will be one of the most economically important ways people build things
Humans and agents will always be using UIs. In fact, UIs will become more important to use: better computer use, interfaces for humans post-code, legacy business software that needs maintaining.
There will be code written to build and maintain UIs.
As expectations and capabilities rise with AI progress, so will the need for new UIs and better versions of the old.
2. Most of the new UIs of the world will be made using web technology
Sub-bet: React is probably the last framework.1
3. Models will become (1) incredibly fast, then (2) incredibly good at UI tasks
Fast because code has verifiable rewards (tests pass, code runs), making it ideal for RL. Labs are scaling post-training on code, and coding tools are building on top. Good requires taste. Great people will get there eventually but slower.
4. Our tools will go the way of "media technology" past
From daguerreotype to polaroid to camcorder to studio-level digital cameras back to iPhones. From low use to an explosion of capabilities and then a product for the average person.
Coding, unlike cameras, will progress OOM faster (5-20 years).
Once AI coding becomes commodified, the winners will be those with better taste and ease of use, not those with bleeding edge capability (1% better than the next best).
5. There will only be two form factors for coding with UIs
Low latency low entropy (sub 100ms2), and long background tasks (big refactors, maintenance, scaffolding a well-spec'd feature).
6. The gap
There is no tool that is good at UI (yet).
No company is going all-in on AI coding for UI.3
If you agree, we should chat.
Footnotes
1Not literally the last framework ever, but the last major paradigm shift (JSX, hooks, etc)
2This is the latency threshold where interactions feel instant, as anything slower breaks flow.
3Vercel/v0 is close but focused on generation, not iteration. Cursor/Windsurf are general-purpose. There's no company whose entire thesis is "AI coding, but specifically for UI" with all the specialized tooling that implies.